The big news this morning is that GDP missed estimates coming in at 2.8% versus the 3%+ expectations. That number was definitely a disappointment for a market that has been trending higher and believing more in our economy. Additionally, earnings were disappointing from the big dogs. Ford (F) missed expectations, bringing its stock down. Chevron (CVX) also had somewhat disappointing earnings. These three main items are weighing on the market, and as always, Europe is down and causing weakness in the market.
On the positive side, consumer sentiment is up, which is allowing for some floor to the downward movement on the day. Additionally, we had quite strong earnings from some less important names like DR Horton (DHI) and while down, Starbucks (SBUX). The market, though, is not going to be able to continue on higher on just so-so earnings and so-so data. At these levels, we need strong data points and earnings. Without them, we will continue to falter.
We come into the day leaning bullish, but we are adding bearish positions and will continue to look for opportunities in these market conditions that are starting to get a bit cloudy.
Current Positions:
Continue reading “The Oxen Report: GDP…Oops…Market Takes a Breather, Will It Last?” »
Today we took a look at 75 stocks/ETF’s and their historical performances during February since 1997. Included in this analysis are the top 40 companies by market cap, the Dow 30, and any companies we foresee having a strong February. Of those studied, fifteen stocks maintained more than 70% positive February’s, while eight stocks failed to maintain more than 40% positive February’s.
Continue reading “Dollar & $en$e – Top February Stocks” »
And finally...we can take a breath as the market slowed down for the first time in quite some time as a slew of economic data came in a bit under expectations and the technical levels on the market paved the way for some consolidation. The market opened higher after news about a possible Greek deal being met was floated as well as the Fed's recent decision to extend low rates into 2014 dropped the dollar index. Strong earnings from Netflix (NFLX) and Caterpillar (CAT) also helped at the open. Yet, throughout the day, the market faltered on the back of economic data like jobless claims, new home sales, and leading indicators, which all missed expectations.
Moving into tomorrow, we believe the market may finally be ready to give up some gains. Over the past several reports, we have been talking about bearish positions to take advantage of the market's overvaluation, but we think two stocks to watch for next week may have more upside or at least volatility.
Continue reading “2 Stocks To Watch, Where Next For The Market: January 26th, 2012” »
The stock market started out higher this morning and has moved a bit higher on the back of the new from the Fed that they were extending low interest rates through 2014. Additionally, the market is getting going behind strength in Europe as they are up over 1% on the back of news that Greece will get private sector lendors to agree to bonds below 4% at 3.75%. Economic data and earnings were also abundant. We had great earnings from Netflix (NFLX), Caterpillar (CAT), and 3M (MMM). Those earnings are helping to power both the Dow and Nasdaq.
Data was also fairly abundant this morning, but it did take a backseat to the rest of the market excitement. Jobless claims came in at 377K vs. 375K expectations. That news, though, does not seem to be affecting the market too strongly. New Home Sales and Leading Indicators were also weaker than expected with new home sales at 307K vs. 321K expectations. Leading Indicators came in at only 0.4% vs. 0.7% expectations. The data may put a ceiling on the overall market today, but we will have to see how high they can take this.
The strength of this market continues to be seen, and we are seeing a market that continues to receive fuel for its fire. The news out of Greece is great, earnings have been pretty good, and the Fed is helping. Yet, what happens when the Fed news is done (tomorrow) as well as Greece...earnings continue. Can they be enough to hold up this market next week? It remains to be seen. At some point, we would believe that some profit taking has to occur.
Current Positions:
Continue reading “The Oxen Report: Market Continues Rally on Fed, Greece, and Earnings” »
Market Opinion: Apple (AAPL) beat earnings after the bell on Tuesday and the market rallied on Wednesday (Surprise!...yeah right…) This market is becoming more overbought every day. The McClellan Oscillator is at 57 on stockcharts.com and I’m thinking about playing a bear call spread on SPY for next week. At this point the SPY seems destined for $135, and I’ll be there waiting with some great bear call spreads going forward from that level. From a volatility standpoint we’re seeing a very low VIX right now, and the ETN’s (TVIX, VXX) that follow the index are near record lows. VelocityShares Daily 2x VIX (TVIX) is very close to its 52wk low after falling over 80% since October.
Continue reading “Giorgio’s Corner – Netflix and CF Industries” »
