Category Archives: Oxen Group Watchlist

Market Recap: The market continues its strength on Thursday in a somewhat peculiar trading day as the market trended higher throughout the day on the back of a mixed data day and as confidence regrew for "risk-on" trading as bond yields in some of the key worrisome European nations dropped. The interesting part was that after such weakness in the market, we had a very so-so day of headlines. Initial jobless claims came in above expectations at 380K vs. 355K estimates. Additionally, core PPI came in at 0.3% rise vs. 0.2% expectations. At the same time, continuing claims and trade balance did drop, which were good signs.

We were pretty shocked to see how much strength the market showed today. It was definitely a very positive sign for the market to move in such a strong fashion, but we still believe that some of the issues that are there for the market are not going away. Europe is struggling in some ways, data has been weaker, and the market has made quite a run. We think a neutral approach to the market is a positive way to approach things in Q2, so we will continue to add strong bullish stocks on weakness and weak stocks on strength.

Continue reading “Two Stocks To Trade, What’s Next For The Market: April 12, 2012” »

Market Recap: The market strengthened on Wednesday as the market turned itself around on the back of good earnings from Alcoa (AA), strength out of Europe as yields in Spain and Italy diminished, and the market geared up for earnings season. The market had traded "risk-off" for the past two days, but Alcoa really set the table as they outperformed expectations, released a profit, and had positive commentary about the state of China, which was helpful as they have been weak as of late.

We have been adjusting our portfolios to be more neutral over the past several days adding more bearish positions, and we continue to think that being neutral is the best way to go in this market. Here are two things we like for upside and downside moving forward.

Continue reading “Two Stocks To Trade, What’s Next For The Market: April 11, 2012” »

Market Recap: The market got its non-farm payrolls reation on Monday after the NFP report came in lower than expected. The Labor Dept. released that 120K jobs were created in March. That number came in well under expectations of 200K. The market did not get a chance to react on Friday as it was Good Friday, and the market was closed. So, we opened up lower at the open but moved higher throughout through the day as the dollar weakened and buyers entered the market on dips.

The move lower to start the week was expected, and we are definitely in a market situation where things are getting sticky. European fears are rising, data has been mixed, and the market is looking for reasons to sell-off. Right now, we believe upside is limited without significantly bullish headlines.

Continue reading “Two Stocks To Trade, What’s Next For The Market: April 9, 2012” »

Weekly Outlook: Last week was not a pretty sight, and it looks to be more of the same this week as the market will deal with the weakness from the non-farms payroll report that came out on Friday. The jobs report announced that 120K jobs were added in March vs. the 200K expectations. The unemployment rate did tick down to 8.2%, but the weakness in the NFP report is definitely going to continue the selling that came in last week. We do start earnings this week as well as have a number of Fed speeches and reports due out throughout the week that can make it interesting. Weakness, however, will be the name of the game to start the week.

The most important things this week will be the start of earnings season, developments in Europe around Spain as bond yields rose there last week, economic data, and Fed speeches. For economic data, we are not having as busy of a week as last week. Some of the important reports though inclue Export/Import Prices as well as the Fed's Beige Book on Wednesday. PPI on Thursday and CPI on Friday will be crucial as well as Michigan Sentiment. That is really the extent of data for the USA this week, so earnings, Europe, and the Fed will more likely direct each day.

Continue reading “Two Stocks To Trade, Where Next for Market: Weekly Outlook” »

Market Recap: The market finished off a short week with a flatter day as the market prepared for a crucial Non-Farm Payrolls report tomorrow. The market drifted lower all week after the Federal Reserve announced that they will not be supplying any more free money with QE. Today, though, the market did have some more exciting reports. Initial jobless claims dipped week over week and stayed around 350K level. That level is good to see moving into the NFP report tomorrow. Additionally, retail sales were strong in March as many retail companies beat their expected YoY sales. Further, Challenger Job Cuts came down 8.8%. Overall, it was a good news day that had the backdrop of a weak week, European fears, and no-QE.

The move this week could easily be reveresed with a strong print from NFP tomorrow. At the same time, a weak report would be fairly devestating for this market that is already starting to show some cracks. We do believe, however, that many strong stocks will continue to remain strong in this market as we seen by two stocks we believe are once again buys for next week:

Continue reading “Two Stocks To Trade, What’s Next For The Market: April 4, 2012” »